Statistically Significant

Andrew Landgraf's Blog

Week 3 NFL Survival Odds

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Continuing my series of trying to figure out which team is best to pick for survival football and then ignoring it, I present my week 3 analysis. I used the same method as the past 2 weeks, and didn’t make any updates to it since last week.
Here we go:

NE (53%), BAL (20%), WAS (8%), and MIN (7%) are the most common teams picked in the Yahoo! leagues. They are also the top four teams according to my metric in a different order.
This week has NE favored by the most that they will be favored by for the rest of the season and by quite a bit so it makes sense that they are ranked at the top. Maybe the biggest difference between this analysis and the Yahoo! distribution is that Baltimore has 20% of Yahoo! but is just fourth best here. I would have to say that my numbers make more sense because Baltimore has three more games with a spread of 10 or higher and couple more with a spread higher than 6. I am surprised that Washington is up on both lists because they are only favored by 4 and playing an away game. Although they only have one more playable game and that is a 6 point favorite.
I would definitely pick New England this week if perfection is your goal.